The brightest colored warm wind wakes up amphibian

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Recently, the dollar weakened and fell below the 90 mark, laying a bullish background for the commodity market. Crude oil, gold and silver, and non-ferrous metals have strengthened, which has also written a strong footnote for cyclical stocks. Yesterday, the main A-share funds net flowed into the top five industry sectors, including steel, coal and nonferrous metals. Judging from the recent performance, the linkage between non-ferrous stocks and futures is particularly obvious. The non-ferrous "amphibians" are quietly mobilized. Where is the investment path for the sector

nonferrous "amphibians" mobilized

"zinc, nickel, tin and other nonferrous metal futures have been rising recently, and the shares of the tin industry have reached a new high!" Yesterday, Mr. Wang, an investor, wrote on his microblog

Mr. Wang has been optimistic about the performance of non-ferrous metal futures and stocks recently. As he judged in last week's trading log, "the US dollar has resisted for several days and fell below 90. There is no alternative. It is not impossible to continue to fall. In the next three years, we should buy gold and silver, copper, nickel, zinc, tungsten, lithium and other promising metals and buy stocks of promising companies."

according to his introduction, he gained a lot from a recent cooperative operation of stocks and futures. In December 2017, the demand for polysilicon, carbon fiber, lithium electronics and other new materials increased day by day. At the beginning of the month, Mr. Wang, who saw "signs" of growth in Shanghai copper futures, resolutely started with Jiangxi copper industry with heavy positions. After holding positions for more than two weeks, he "fell into the bag" and made a lot of profits

recently, the US dollar fell sharply, bringing good news to commodity futures priced in US dollars. During the decline of the US dollar, the linkage trend of non-ferrous metal stocks and futures was highlighted again. Yesterday, the non-ferrous metal sector in the commodity futures market continued to be strong. The sector led the rise in the variety huzn to close at 27055 yuan/ton, up 3.32% from the closing price of the previous day, rising to a higher level in the past decade; Shanghai tin rose by more than 2%, setting a new stage high; Shanghai lead and Shanghai nickel rose by more than 1%. On the same day, the capital inflow of commodity futures market totaled RMB 1.865 billion, of which the non-ferrous sector had a large capital inflow, including RMB 514million from Shanghai zinc and RMB 337million from Shanghai copper (accumulating RMB 2.032 billion for seven consecutive trading days)

in the external market, the copper and nickel trading in the future were at a high level for two and a half years, and the processing prices of lead and zinc in the future also climbed to multi-year highs

at the same time, since January 18, the non-ferrous metal plate has started to rise continuously. Yesterday, the A-share non-ferrous metal sector showed an eye-catching performance. Tin industry shares rose by 5.71%, zinc industry shares, Luoping zinc power, Zijin Mining and other stocks rose by more than 3%, and Zhongjin Lingnan, Shengda mining and other stocks followed suit. The nonferrous metals sector was among the top five sectors in which the main net capital of the stock market flowed into yesterday

where does the warm air of non-ferrous metal plate come from? How long will it last

Northeast Securities research pointed out that it is still optimistic about the allocation opportunities of copper and zinc plate. In terms of copper supply, the capital expenditure of the world's major mines reached its peak in 2012. At present, there is no large-scale copper mine production project, and mine strikes occur frequently, disrupting production. In terms of demand, at present, the economies of various countries continue to recover, and the downstream demand is generally better than expected. The international copper research group (ICSG) predicts that the global refined copper consumption will increase by 1% in 2017 and 2.3% in 2018. It is expected that the copper price performance in 2018 will be more eye-catching than that in 2017. In terms of zinc, the overall fundamentals are good. Due to environmental supervision, the domestic zinc concentrate output is less than expected, and the zinc price is expected to remain high in the future. Companies with rich resources at the mine end will benefit earlier

"the holding of the US dollar index has made the toughening effect more obvious. The continued weakening and the positive expectation of global economic recovery have promoted the recent strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, but its sustainability remains to be observed." Caoyang, a senior analyst of non-ferrous metals at Dongzheng futures, told the China Securities Journal

behind the differentiation of varieties

recently, the non-ferrous metals have not risen strongly as a whole, but have been differentiated. Among them, copper and aluminum are weak, in a narrow range of vibration, while zinc and nickel are strong, both reaching new highs for many years

wuhaode, a non-ferrous metals analyst at Changjiang futures, pointed out that there are many reasons. In terms of the overall environment, first, China's economic data in December 2017 showed that it was designed specifically for the preservation of processed food. In particular, the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter exceeded expectations, which was good for the entire commodity market; Second, the US dollar has fallen for nearly three consecutive months, and the speech of "weak dollar" at the Davos Forum has supported the high and strong price of basic metals; Third, the domestic low-temperature rain and snow weather in recent three weeks has hindered the transportation of finished products of aluminum, zinc and other varieties, resulting in a decline in apparent inventory and a tight spot market

"in terms of varieties, the sharp rise of individual varieties has also played a driving role in the whole nonferrous metals industry. For example, the raw materials of zinc are still in short supply, the TC of zinc concentrate has reached the point where it can not be reduced, the zinc inventory of LME is still in the state of slow de melting, and the domestic spot traders are very willing to support the price. In addition, the expectation of the steel plant's resumption of production in March reflects that the zinc price has been fluctuating above 10000 yuan for a long time in recent months." Wuhaode's analysis of China Securities Journal

it is worth noting that in the case of continuous inflow of Shanghai copper funds in the domestic futures market, the net long position of cftc1 copper decreased by 3616 to 57550 last week, decreasing for three consecutive weeks

analysts believe that the overall performance of international copper prices has been under pressure since the new year. With the decrease of speculative net long positions, it shows that the bulls are actively taking profits at high prices, and the pressure of short-term copper price correction remains. From a domestic perspective, wuhaode pointed out that the current funds are still optimistic about the copper price in 2018, and the willingness of large domestic copper enterprises to buy insurance has increased

where is the investment path of the sector?

looking forward to the future, how will the non-ferrous market evolve in the future? What are the investment opportunities

according to Cao Yang's analysis, a large number of funds have poured into the nonferrous metals sector, but the deviation between the macro and fundamentals is occurring. The varieties with relatively small accumulated inventory pressure have the opportunity to go long at different stages. In addition, tin, lead, zinc, etc., which are more affected by environmental protection and power restriction, have more opportunities to do long at different stages. However, in the second quarter, investors must be vigilant against the shift of macro expectations. If the shift of macro expectations continues to weaken, the price of base metals may face greater downward pressure. Strategically, copper is recommended to be tactical long in the short term, and strategic short selling is still recommended in the whole year

wuhaode believes that from the perspective of future supply and demand pattern, he is more optimistic about the performance of copper and nickel prices in 2018. As aluminum is still in the pattern of supply exceeding demand, and the implementation of environmental protection and production restriction is poor, it is expected to continue to operate weakly in the medium term. The logic of the rise of zinc price mainly depends on the output contraction of finished products caused by the shortage of raw materials. In 2018 and beyond, there are many new mines that may resume production and put into production, so the zinc price faces a great callback risk. In terms of arbitrage, the price ratio of copper and zinc main contracts has fallen below 2. It is suggested that investors can try the multi copper and short zinc arbitrage strategy, with the target price ratio of 2.1 to 2.15

in the short term, analysts remind that the downstream operating rate continues to decline near the Chinese new year, and the export warms up, but the stimulation to demand can only have a slight marginal improvement. The resumption of work after the spring festival may become the real starting point for the phased improvement of supply and demand. In addition, we also need to be vigilant about whether the short-term dollar index has the possibility of stabilizing and rebounding at a low level

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