Emerging terminal markets are to blame for the glo

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Will the global semiconductor market be saturated? Blame the immature momentum of emerging terminal markets

the IC and semiconductor industries have experienced a positive boom cycle for quite a while, and they are afraid to slow down or even encounter turbulence after entering the second half of 2018 and 2019. Although the market demand for many chips remained at a sound level in the second half of 2018, some warnings have emerged. First, the NAND flash market is expected to gradually enter the potential period of overcapacity from capacity shortage. The time point falls in the second half of 2018 or 2019, and the DRAM price is expected to be gradually eroded

secondly, the production capacity of 8-inch wafer factories is still at a very tight level. However, wafer manufacturers will gradually shift from 16/14 nm process to 10/7 nm process. With the customer base shifting to 22 nm process, the 28 nm process, which accounts for the bulk of the wafer factory's revenue, will show a trend of slowing growth

in the first half of 2018, the semiconductor industry continued to benefit from the improvement of the boom since 2017, and DRAM prices remained relatively high-end, contributing to the sharp rise in the overall IC industry revenue. At the same time, the semiconductor equipment market is also driven by the demand of NAND flash, DRAM and wafer manufacturers

at present, the semiconductor market is not all a sign of disappointment and gloomy prospects. The intelligent market seems to show a slight upward trend, while 5g, artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, automotive electronics and industrial fields continue to become the driving force driving the growth of chip demand

according to the IHS analyst quoted by semiconductorengineering, it is estimated that 201 can also draw a force strain curve according to the needs of users. The global IC market is expected to grow by 14.9% in 8 years. The largest growth momentum is mainly led by memory. The expected annual growth rate of the memory market is expected to rise by 30.8% and is the reference basis for future mass production. It is worth noting that, If the memory is excluded from the calculation based on the three elastomer technology platforms of "dynamic full vulcanization + esterification + hydrogenation", the growth rate in other fields of semiconductor is only 7.8%, slightly lower than the 10% of the previous year

looking forward to 2019, the global semiconductor market boom continues to cool, with an expected annual growth rate of only 4%, and the slight cold boom in 2019 may be caused by the slowdown in the revenue growth of the memory market. NAND flash is most likely to have overcapacity in 2019, and DRAM also begins to suffer price erosion

manufacturers believe that the key problem lies in the terminal market. Trapped by the impact of market saturation, the demand for smart markets continues to slow down. However, new terminal market drivers, such as IOT, 5g or self driving, are not mature enough to drive the industry and replace the revenue brought by PC. this is also the dilemma that the semiconductor boom in 2019 may face

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